Synopsis: An informal explanation was given of the probabilistic risk techniques that were applied immediately after the announcement by the Secretary of State for Health in 1996 of a possible link between bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and the human form, variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob Disease (vCJD). An up-to-date prediction of vCJD numbers, made using a simplified model, has been shown to conform closely with previous predictions, all of which receive strong validation from the human data accruing over the past decade. Government did not act on the risk-based predictions presented at the time and the political lessons for the future were considered for policy areas subject to risk.

All students were invited to attend this very interesting lecture by Professor Philip Thomas. They also had an opportunity to meet some officials of the InstMC, and in particular its London Section who sponsor student membership at a number of London Universities each year.